“It is more random than we think, and we are less smart than we think.”

Success in finance often looks like brilliance—but randomness loves to wear a suit. Many top performers are just beneficiaries of probability. The scary part? They don’t even know it. And neither do we.

Did You Win… or Did You Just Get Lucky?

We see the winners, not the thousands who tried and vanished. Books, media, markets—all glorify survivors. But the silent graveyard of failures carries the real story: randomness devours most.

Where Are the Failures?

“Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost.”

Most of what moves markets is invisible noise dressed as signal. We think we’re reacting to skill or trend, but often we’re just dancing to chaos. And mistaking it for music.

The Enemy You Can’t See

The confident trader who’s “always right” might just be riding a lucky streak. Overconfidence + randomness = explosive risk. The worst part? He might actually believe he’s in control.

The Most Dangerous Person in the Room

Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.

Once you see randomness for what it is, everything changes. You stop worshipping false gods. You start asking better questions. And most importantly, you stop mistaking luck for destiny.

Seeing the Matrix

Our brains crave patterns and meaning. We invent neat stories after the fact, even if the outcome was pure chance. It comforts us—but misleads us. Reality rarely fits into clean plots.

The Storytelling Trap

Accept that you don’t know. Respect randomness. Make decisions that survive the unexpected. True wisdom is less about being right, more about not being ruined when you’re wrong.

How to Play the Game Without Being Played

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an accomplished writer whose work has resonated with readers around the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has published several books that explore a range of topics, from fiction to nonfiction, and has received critical acclaim for the ability to weave compelling narratives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's writing style is known for its depth and authenticity, and has earned quite a loyal following of readers.

Did You Win… or Did You Just Get Lucky?

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