Big Bulb 's Key Ideas from Fooled by Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

We see the winners, not the thousands who tried and vanished. Books, media, markets—all glorify survivors. But the silent graveyard of failures carries the real story: randomness devours most.

Our brains crave patterns and meaning. We invent neat stories after the fact, even if the outcome was pure chance. It comforts us—but misleads us. Reality rarely fits into clean plots.

Most of what moves markets is invisible noise dressed as signal. We think we’re reacting to skill or trend, but often we’re just dancing to chaos. And mistaking it for music.

The confident trader who’s “always right” might just be riding a lucky streak. Overconfidence + randomness = explosive risk. The worst part? He might actually believe he’s in control.

Accept that you don’t know. Respect randomness. Make decisions that survive the unexpected. True wisdom is less about being right, more about not being ruined when you’re wrong.

Once you see randomness for what it is, everything changes. You stop worshipping false gods. You start asking better questions. And most importantly, you stop mistaking luck for destiny.