In today’s uncertain economic climate, understanding the forces behind market movements is more crucial than ever In this insightful conversation with macro strategist James Kostohryz, we explore whether the current wave of macroeconomic shocks—ranging from trade tensions to geopolitical threats—could lead to a full-blown U.S. business cycle recession.This stash distills the conversation into actionable insights for intermediate and professional investors looking to protect and position their portfolios.

Introduction

James Kostohryz outlines five major economic shocks that, in combination, could trigger a business cycle recession:Trade War & Tariffs: The imposition of tariffs—particularly on Chinese goods—is disrupting both demand and supply chains. Nearly 48% of U.S. manufactured products contain foreign inputs, and many of those come from China. Higher costs, reduced imports, and logistical snags could stall production and reduce consumer choice.

The U.S. Economy Faces Multiple Simultaneous Shocks

Fiscal Spending Cuts: Rapid cuts in government spending, aimed at increasing efficiency, could contract economic activity. Even if small in dollar terms, the speed and scale of cuts could have an outsized effect on confidence and spending.Immigration Slowdown = Labor Shock: Immigration, especially undocumented immigration, has quietly contributed up to 1% of GDP growth in recent years. A slowdown in inflows—and even reverse migration—is reducing both labor supply and consumer demand. Fewer workers means less output; fewer consumers means less spending.

Reversal of the Wealth Effect: A declining stock market makes consumers feel poorer. This psychological impact leads to reduced spending and increased saving—especially on big-ticket items like homes, cars, and vacations—dragging consumption down further.Tightening Financial Conditions: Rising interest rates and reduced access to credit are making borrowing more expensive. Higher mortgage rates and cautious lending standards slow down investment, home buying, and small business expansion—often precursors to recession.

You can generate more alpha from good macro decisions than from great stock picking.

The Q1 GDP decline is not a sign of immediate weakness, Kostohryz explains. It was mainly caused by a spike in imports, which are subtracted from GDP. Ironically, this indicates strong consumer and business demand, not a contraction.The real strength came from a 20% surge in equipment investment, but much of this was likely "pulled forward" to beat upcoming tariffs. This could lead to a slowdown in later quarters as that demand has already been met.Consumer spending is starting to soften, in line with gloomy consumer sentiment. While not recessionary yet, it’s an early warning sign.

GDP Data Is Not Always What It Seems

A potential war involving Iran and Israel, possibly with U.S. involvement, is a looming risk. Such a conflict could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply.If oil prices spike dramatically (to $200–$300/barrel as Kostohryz speculates), it could trigger a global stagflation scenario—where inflation surges while growth collapses.This kind of geopolitical shock, layered on top of the economic ones already in play, could deepen any market downturn significantly, even pushing drawdowns toward 50% or more, similar to the 2000–2002 bear market.

Geopolitical Conflict Could Be a Game-Changer

If we go to war with Iran, we’re not just talking about a macro shock—we’re talking about a global oil shock.

Raise Cash: Don’t rush into risky positions. High-yield savings and money market funds (earning ~4–5%) are excellent places to sit tight while markets correct.Reduce Equity Exposure: Particularly in sectors sensitive to consumer demand and international supply chains. The goal is to avoid being caught in a steep drawdown.Be Patient: Much of the damage from tariffs and immigration tightening won’t show in official data until summer. Be ready to act, but don’t front-run the pain too early.

How Investors Can Prepare and Respond

Use Tactical Tools Cautiously:<ul><li>Inverse ETFs: Kostohryz uses SDS (a 2x inverse ETF for the S&P 500) as a starter bearish position.</li><li>Volatility Trades: His team also shorted the VIX using volatility-linked ETFs when it spiked above 50, capturing the normalization trend.</li><li>Options (for advanced investors): Tactical bearish exposure through options could offer high reward—but high risk.</li></ul>

The best thing investors can do right now? Raise cash, be patient, and wait.

The risk of recession is rising as macro shocks build. Now is the time to protect your portfolio: raise cash, reduce exposure to high-beta stocks, and monitor early warning signs like jobless claims.History shows markets reprice fast—being prepared, not reactive, is key. Even without a full recession, valuations remain elevated. Stay cautious, stay flexible, and get ready to seize long-term opportunities.

Final Thoughts

Navigating the storm with 4 key ideas by smart insights from James Kostohryz on Investing Experts Podcast.

Listen to Investing Experts on Spotify. Seeking Alpha's deep dive stock analysis and topical takes on the market with top analysts and industry experts.Transcripts: seekingalpha.com/author/investing-experts-podcast

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Will Macroeconomic Shocks Trigger a Business Cycle Recession?

Our brains don't just record reality—they predict it. Instead of a perfect snapshot, what we perceive is a mix of senses, memories, and guesses. Even our self-image is a story stitched together from fuzzy facts and assumptions.In this book, we dive into five big ideas: how we know, remember, imagine, disconnect, and narrate our lives. The twist? That self-story isn’t set in stone. You can rewrite it—and become someone new.

Discover an exciting perspective on human identity.

You can’t feel your brain—yet it controls everything. It builds a model of your body, your voice, your world. That strange feeling when you hear your voice recorded or see your mirrored image?It’s a clue: you’re living in a brain-made simulation. Even your sense of “now” is patched together from signals arriving at different times. And most of your mind isn’t focused on the present—it drifts between past memories and imagined futures.Reality, as you know it, is just your brain’s best guess.

Starting the script

Your past self? It’s built from fuzzy memories and old photos—pieces your brain rewrites over time.Your future self? Even blurrier, shaped by guesses and hopes. Still, you feel like the same person across time.Why? Because your brain tells a story—a self-narrative that began in childhood, shaped by the tales you heard and told.Memory isn’t a recording; it’s a reconstruction. We encode, store, and then rewrite it every time we recall. Emotional moments feel vivid, but they can be just as unreliable.In the end, your identity is a story—and you’re its lifelong storyteller.

Your memories aren’t perfect films—they’re rough sketches. Your brain acts like an editor with fuzzy footage, filling in gaps, exaggerating bits, and simplifying others. It turns messy moments into clean, cartoon-like storyboards to keep things manageable.But this editing isn’t random—it follows a pattern shaped by the stories you heard growing up. From childhood on, your brain has been crafting meaning through narrative.In the end, you don’t just remember—you retell. And those retellings shape how you see yourself and your world.

Using imperfect data to make predictions

Your brain craves cause and effect—it’s how it makes sense of the world. Like a card counter, it constantly updates its best guess about what’s coming next.This prediction engine even shapes your senses. That’s why touching your own cheek feels different than someone else doing it—your brain expects your own touch and tones it down.This predictive power goes beyond your body. Drive the same car long enough, and it starts to feel like an extension of you.That’s your brain, stretching your sense of self through habit, sensation, and the stories it tells.

Your perception is uniquely yours—but it’s far from consistent. Shift the order of events, and the story changes. That’s why two people in the same accident often recall it differently—each filters it through their own internal narrative.Every experience is a blend of memory, perception, and prediction—a messy mix that blurs the line between who you were and who you are.And just when you think you’ve got a handle on it, the brain throws in something even trickier: its tendency to disconnect from itself.

You're not just one self—you’re a mix of many. Freud called them the id, ego, and superego. Jung spoke of the shadow self. These ideas hint at something we all feel: there are different versions of us inside.Psychologists have long explored whether truly distinct personalities can coexist in one mind. And pop culture—think superheroes or Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde—runs wild with the idea.Why? Because it rings true. You act differently at work, with friends, or meeting someone new. We’re all shapeshifters, telling different stories depending on the moment.

The group mentality

Ever feel like you’re watching your life like a movie?That’s dissociation—a mental trick we all use. In extreme cases, it shows up as Dissociative Identity Disorder, where different selves take turns in control.But on a smaller scale, dissociation helps us switch roles and slip into different narratives. It’s how we connect, adapt, and survive. Just like getting lost in a great story, we absorb bits of others—ideas, emotions, viewpoints—until the line between “me” and “them” starts to blur.It’s not weakness—it’s human.

Your brain has a superpower called Theory of Mind—the ability to imagine what others are thinking. It helps us connect, but it also means we absorb others’ opinions constantly. We’re wired to follow the crowd—it’s how our ancestors stayed safe.But this creates a mental juggling act: who you are, who others think you are, and what you think they think! Even your core values, the ones that feel deeply personal, are shaped by the world you grew up in.In the end, much of “you” is a reflection of everyone else.

Political polarization is a perfect example of how community pressure shapes our morals.Each side’s core values become rigid, almost impossible to compromise, as groupthink strengthens their identity. What once felt like personal choice now seems like an unbreakable code, amplified by societal pressure.Our sense of self is shaped by three things: imperfect memories, uncertain hopes for the future, and the reflections of others. Often, our current thoughts are a mix of all these influences—blended and shaped without us even noticing.

Our sense of self is shaped by both internal and external forces, making it far from consistent. But one thing is certain: the power of a good story.From childhood, we’re drawn to popular narratives, like the hero’s journey, which shows up everywhere—from the Epic of Gilgamesh to Star Wars to Marvel films. These stories not only entertain—they reshape our brains.In a study, author Gregory Berns had students read a historical novel, scanning their brains before and after. The results? Language areas lit up, but so did sensory and motor regions, proving stories change us on a deeper level.

The power of good narrative

Stories don’t just live in our minds—they shape how we experience the world, influencing both our emotions and physical sensations. They’re deeply embedded in our mental frameworks, forming the lenses through which we view life.But we must be mindful of the stories we consume. Whether filled with hope or fear, they shape our self-image. Theory of Mind helps us connect, but also leaves us open to manipulation. False narratives, when repeated enough, can warp reality.So, question the source, watch for bias, and be wary of martyr figures. Stories hold great power—choose them wisely.

We often define our lives by "branch points"—key decisions that shape our paths, like choosing a career or meeting someone who changes everything. Yet, these moments can bring regret, whether for actions taken or opportunities missed.Regret isn’t just about the past—it’s a tool for better decision-making. By imagining alternative outcomes, we learn to make smarter choices.Missed opportunities often weigh more heavily than actions we took, but reframing regrets as lessons or lucky breaks can change how we see them.This shift helps us move forward with more confidence and courage to take risks.

Creating a new story without regret

Now’s the time to flip the script. Instead of replaying past regrets, imagine the ones you might have in the future—and use that as a guide for today. Your brain loves stories, so make it count. Start a new chapter now.Most stories don’t begin at the beginning—they start in the middle. Yours can too. Let go of fairy-tale endings and choose a path rooted in meaning.As Plato and Aristotle taught, fulfillment isn’t found in glory, but in living with purpose. Struggle, grow, create. Don’t rewrite the past—reimagine who you can become.

Try this: imagine cloning yourself and sending that version five years into the future. What do you hope they’ve done? That vision becomes your roadmap.Your story is still being written—and you hold the pen. Use your past to spot patterns, dodge pitfalls, and make smarter moves. When in doubt, ask: “What choice would future me thank me for?”Yes, identity is fluid. But that’s a gift. You’re not stuck in one role—you can pivot, grow, rewrite. Each decision shapes who you become.So start today, aim forward, and make your next chapter count.

You’re not one fixed self, but a shifting mix of past, present, and future versions—constantly changing as your brain and body evolve.Your identity is a story your brain tells, shaped by memories, habits, and patterns. But here’s the twist: those stories aren’t set in stone. You can rewrite them.With awareness and intention, you can shape a version of yourself that’s truer to who you want to be—one that lives with more meaning and fewer regrets. Your story is still in progress.

Final Summary

"The Self Delusion" asks a mind-bending questions: What if you from yesterday, today, and tomorrow are actually three different people? It explains how our brains create the illusion of a single, continuous-self, and how we can rewrite that story to shape our future.

A New York Times–bestselling author reveals how the stories we tell ourselves, about ourselves, are critical to our lives  We all know we tell stories about ourselves. But as psychiatrist and neuroscientist Gregory Berns argues in The Self Delusion, we don’t just tell stories; we are the stories. Our self-identities are fleeting phenomena, continually reborn as our conscious minds receive, filter, or act on incoming information from the world and our memories.  Drawing on new research in neuroscience, social science, and psychiatry, Berns shows how our stories and our self-identities are temporary and therefore ever changing. Berns shows how we can embrace the delusion of a singular self to make our lives better, offering a plan not centered on what we think will be best for us, but predicated on minimizing regrets. Enlightening, empowering, and surprising, The Self Delusion shows us how to be the protagonist of the stories we want to tell.

Understand yourself and those around you.

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Science & Nature

Gregory Berns

The Self Delusion

In a world that constantly pushes us to go faster, do more, and chase perfection, it's easy to feel overwhelmed and disconnected. But what if the path to a better life isn't about doing more, but doing things more mindfully?Japan, with its deep-rooted cultural traditions, offers powerful yet simple philosophies that gently guide us toward balance, purpose, and peace. These aren’t just abstract ideas—they are everyday wisdoms you can apply to your money, your mindset, and your lifestyle.

Kaizen means “continuous improvement.” Not through big leaps, but small, steady steps. Imagine saving just a bit more each month, learning something new every day, or changing one habit at a time. That’s Kaizen. It’s the power of compounding—not just money, but effort.Success doesn’t have to be flashy. Often, it’s quiet. Just like water wearing down rock, small actions, repeated daily, shape your life. You don’t need to overhaul everything overnight. Improve 1% today. Then again tomorrow. Over time, these small wins become your biggest victories.

1. Kaizen – Tiny Steps, Massive Change

Wabi-Sabi is about finding beauty in the imperfect, the worn, and the real. That chipped mug you love? That quirky habit you have? That past mistake? All part of your story. We live in a world chasing perfection—but real joy comes from accepting things as they are.Life, money, relationships—they’re all messy sometimes. And that’s okay. Wabi-Sabi teaches us to love the cracks, because that’s where the light comes in. Instead of fixing every flaw, start appreciating the charm of what’s already there.

2. Wabi-Sabi – Beauty in Imperfection

Shoshin is approaching life with the wonder of a beginner. Even if you’re an expert, stay open, curious, and humble. In finances, relationships, or personal growth, thinking you “already know” stops you from learning.A beginner’s mind asks questions, explores, listens. It’s not naïve—it’s wise. The world is always changing. Stay teachable. Let every day be a class. The more you learn, the more you realize how much more there is to discover.

3. Shoshin – The Beginner’s Mind

Ikigai is your reason to get up in the morning. It lies where your passions, talents, the world’s needs, and your income meet. It doesn’t have to be a job. It could be raising kids, painting, gardening, or helping others. When you live with Ikigai, even small actions feel meaningful.Your life feels aligned, full. Finding Ikigai isn’t about pressure—it’s about paying attention. What energizes you? What do you do well? Start there. You don’t find purpose all at once. You uncover it little by little, by following joy.

4. Ikigai – Your Reason for Being

Shinrin-Yoku means “forest bathing.” It’s not exercise—it’s presence. Walking slowly through trees. Listening to birds. Breathing in deeply. It’s a reset button for your body and mind. In our fast, screen-filled lives, we forget how healing nature is.Just 15 minutes outside can lower stress, spark creativity, and remind you that you’re part of something bigger. No forest nearby? A park or even a plant can work. Slow down. Step outside. Let nature help you find calm.

5. Shinrin-Yoku – Nature is the Cure

Oubaitori comes from the idea that cherry, plum, peach, and apricot trees all bloom in their own time. So should we. Stop comparing your timeline, job, wealth, or life path to others’.It’s not a race. Everyone grows differently. You’re not behind. You’re just on your path. Instead of envy, try admiration. Instead of comparison, try gratitude. You’re doing fine. Keep blooming.

6. Oubaitori – No Comparisons Needed

Gaman is the quiet strength to endure tough times with grace.It’s not weakness—it’s resilience. When money is tight, when life is unfair, when things fall apart—Gaman holds you steady.It doesn’t mean bottling emotions. It means keeping your dignity. Breathe. Adapt. Trust that storms pass. And when they do, you’ll be stronger, calmer, wiser. Gaman reminds you: patience is strength in disguise.

7. Gaman – Inner Strength and Patience

Mottainai is a sense of regret over waste—of time, energy, money, or resources.It teaches mindfulness. Don’t throw away food when others are hungry. Don’t waste hours scrolling when you could be learning. Don’t let your talents go unused. Whether it’s a leftover meal, a budget, or your potential—everything has value.Be grateful. Use wisely. Live with less waste and more awareness.

8. Mottainai – Waste Nothing

Yuugen is the feeling of awe from something too deep for words—a sunset, a poem, or a quiet moment that stirs your soul. It reminds us that not all value can be seen or explained. Your most important experiences often don’t make it to social media.The best parts of life are often felt, not flaunted. Protect the quiet magic. Trust that the unseen is just as powerful as the visible.

9. Yuugen – The Beauty Beyond Words

Kintsugi is the art of repairing broken pottery with gold.Instead of hiding cracks, it highlights them—making the item more beautiful. Your setbacks? Your heartbreaks? They’re part of your story. They don’t reduce your worth—they add to it.Your scars are proof you’ve healed. Embrace them. You’re not broken. You’re golden.

10. Kintsugi – Scars Made of Gold

Mono no Aware is the bittersweet awareness that everything is temporary.That’s what makes moments special. A cherry blossom falls. A child grows up. A perfect day ends. Instead of clinging or rushing, Mono no Aware invites us to feel—to fully live in the present, knowing it won’t last. It’s not sad—it’s tender.In money and life, learn to appreciate the now. Every season has its beauty.

11. Mono no Aware – Cherish the Fleeting

Nemawashi means “laying the groundwork.”Before you move a tree, you prepare the roots. Before big life changes—like a career shift or investment—you research, talk, plan. This quiet prep makes big actions smoother.Don’t rush into change. Plant the ideas, build the support, grow the roots. Change that lasts begins with care, not chaos.Prepare gently—and act boldly.

12. Nemawashi – Quiet Preparation

This video brings together 12 timeless Japanese principles, each beautifully practical in its own way.Whether it’s learning to take small steps with Kaizen, finding purpose through Ikigai, or embracing your imperfections with Kintsugi, these lessons invite you to live with intention—not perfection.You don’t need to be a monk or minimalist to benefit from these ideas. You just need a bit of curiosity and the willingness to pause, reflect, and grow.

Conclusion

12 pieces of Japanese wisdom that offer insights on managing finances, living intentionally, and finding contentment in life.

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DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These videos are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am merely sharing my personal opinion.  Please seek professional help when needed.

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Hi, if you're new to my videos my name is Tae Kim.  In the classic fable The Tortoise and the Hare, the tortoise didn’t win by being the fastest—he won by being consistent. Step by step, he kept moving forward. And when it comes to building wealth, the same principle applies. It's not about speed—it's about steady progress over time.

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12 Pieces Of Japanese Wisdom To Master Your Money & Life

According to a 2006 paper published by a Duke University researcher, more than 40% of the actions we perform each day aren’t actual decisions, but habits.The reason is simple: our brain is constantly on the lookout for new ways to save energy, so when it notices a sequence of actions with a beneficial result, it converts it in an automatic habit and stores it in a primitive part of the brain called the basal ganglia.

The habit loop: how habits work

All habits share a similar pattern by 3 step loop:<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">First, there is the external cue, that is, the trigger that tells your brain to go into automatic mode and which habit to use. This can be anything from the familiar music of an ice cream truck to the smell of fresh coffee in the morning. </li><li class="ql-align-justify">Then, there is the routine itself, the most obvious element of a habit, the behavior you wish to change (e.g., nail biting) or reinforce (e.g., taking the stairs instead of the elevator). </li><li class="ql-align-justify">Finally, there is the reward that helps your brain figure out if this particular loop is worth remembering for the future.</li></ul>

Over time, this habit loop – cue, routine, reward – becomes more and more automatic. “The cue and reward become intertwined in such a way that a powerful sense of anticipation and craving emerges,” writes Duhigg. It is this craving that powers the habit loop and gives habits their strength.

The craving brain: how habits are powered

When the cue and reward are automated, we can’t help but hunger after the latter every time we’re exposed to the former.Listening to the tinkling music of a roving ice cream truck creates anticipation of a sugar-fueled joy inside our brain – but also activates a neurological pattern associated with desire and frustration.If you don’t get that vanilla-flavored ice-cream in a cone or a dish, the joy turns into a craving that, if left unsatisfied, drives you to anger and depression.

In the case of strong habits, wanting evolves into an obsessive craving that forces our brains into autopilot, “even in the face of strong disincentives, including loss of reputation, job, home, and family.”This is why some people can’t help but cheat their significant others or gamble away their family’s savings. Unless they don’t do that, their brains will go into overdrive with anger and frustration, getting hold of their entire bodies.

The bad news is twofold.First of all, the basal ganglia is quite primitive, so it is unable to tell the difference between bad and good habits.The only thing it understands are rewards in the present: if it doesn’t get them now, it will turn against you until you obey its will.

The golden rule of habit change

Secondly, the habit loop is just too powerful to be broken apart.You can try to get rid of a bad habit as much as you want to, but the basal ganglia will eventually get the better of you because cravings are much more potent than willpower.It’s like trying to separate powerful magnets: you need a lot of force and energy to keep the cue and the reward apart from each other, but this is both physically and psychologically draining; sooner or later, you’ll grow tired and fall back into the old bad habit once again.

Fortunately, there is some good news as well.Namely, even though you can never truly extinguish your bad habits by doing away with the habit loop – you can undeniably short-circuit it and transform your bad habits into good ones.All you need to do is adhere to a simple instruction, the so-called golden rule of habit change: keep the old cue and deliver the old reward – but insert a new routine in-between.

“That’s the rule,” writes Duhigg. “If you use the same cue, and provide the same reward, you can shift the routine and change the habit. Almost any behavior can be transformed if the cue and reward stay the same.The golden rule has influenced treatments for alcoholism, obesity, obsessive-compulsive disorders, and hundreds of other destructive behaviors, and understanding it can help anyone change their own habits.”

Changing habits is neither fast nor easy; however, thanks to the golden rule, you can reshape almost any habit, provided that you dedicate enough time and effort.Since there are so many habits, there isn’t really a single formula for changing them; but the following 4-step framework – though merely a practical guide – is a great place to start:

А 4-step framework for habit change

Identify the routineSince the routine is the most obvious part of the habit, this is the easiest step.In the case of Duhigg, the habit he wanted to change was going to the cafeteria every afternoon and buying a chocolate chip cookie – a practice that caused him to gain weight.For you, it can be anything from smoking to procrastination to watching too much Netflix.

Experiment with rewards.Now that you’ve identified the routine you want to change, the second step is to discover something far less obvious – the nature of the craving that glues the cue and the reward together.Most cravings are “obvious in retrospect, but incredibly hard to see when we are under their sway,” so, to figure this out, you need to experiment a bit with the rewards.It isn’t really important what you choose to do instead of the routine you want to change: the point is to test different hypotheses to see when the urge will finally be satisfied.

Isolate the cueAt this point, you should know both the routine and the reward – in addition to the craving the reward satisfies.What remains is identifying the cue. Almost all habitual cues fit into one of the following five categories: location, time, emotional state, other people, and the action immediately preceding the routine.

Have a planNow it’s time to put the golden rule into practice and come up with a written plan that should help you short-circuit the habit loop.The thing is it was always going to work: as we already said, the basal ganglia is too primitive to distinguish between routines, and its only job is to prime you into doing something to get the reward it wants.So, by keeping the cue and the reward and changing the routine that bridges them, both you and your primitive self win.

Habit replacement is an amazing life hack. Use it wisely, and in just a few weeks, you can put a bad habit behind and adopt a good one – both in one fell swoop! However, this process of reprogramming has one vital flaw: it works only until the stresses of life get too high.If, for example, you found out your partner was cheating on you or someone you love very much was diagnosed with cancer, chances are you’d immediately fall back to the old loop.

The importance of belief

You need something more than yourself, something more than your willpower to get through such moments. And that something is belief.People who believe in something bigger than themselves can always admit their powerlessness and find comfort in the fact that there’s someone beside them at all times.Without belief, a reworked habit loop is only as lasting as life is kind. But to turn the new habit loop into permanent behavior, you must introduce some kind of belief in your life.It doesn’t have to include God – a friend might do just as well.

It’s not easy to change a habit, but with sufficient time and effort, you can unquestionably do it. Just replace the routine but keep the initial cue and the final reward; it doesn’t mind asking some supervision from a friend as well!

Summary

Widely considered a classic on the subject, Charles Duhigg’s “The Power of Habit” is a 400-page methodical exploration of the nature and the machinery of our habits. Much more importantly, it is also a manual on how to train yourself out of the bad ones. So, get ready to learn how habits work and how to change the ones you don’t like!

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • This instant classic explores how we can change our lives by changing our habits. NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY The Wall Street Journal • Financial Times In The Power of Habit, award-winning business reporter Charles Duhigg takes us to the thrilling edge of scientific discoveries that explain why habits exist and how they can be changed. Distilling vast amounts of information into engrossing narratives that take us from the boardrooms of Procter & Gamble to the sidelines of the NFL to the front lines of the civil rights movement, Duhigg presents a whole new understanding of human nature and its potential. At its core, The Power of Habit contains an exhilarating argument: The key to exercising regularly, losing weight, being more productive, and achieving success is understanding how habits work. As Duhigg shows, by harnessing this new science, we can transform our businesses, our communities, and our lives. With a new Afterword by the author   “Sharp, provocative, and useful.”—Jim Collins   “Few [books] become essential manuals for business and living. The Power of Habit is an exception. Charles Duhigg not only explains how habits are formed but how to kick bad ones and hang on to the good.”—Financial Times   “A flat-out great read.”—David Allen, bestselling author of Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress-Free Productivity “You’ll never look at yourself, your organization, or your world quite the same way.”—Daniel H. Pink, bestselling author of Drive and A Whole New Mind “Entertaining . . . enjoyable . . . fascinating . . . a serious look at the science of habit formation and change.”—The New York Times Book Review

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Productivity

habits

Habits

Charles Duhigg is an American journalist and non-fiction author. He was a reporter for The New York Times, currently writes for The New Yorker Magazine and is the author of two books on habits and productivity, titled The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business and Smarter Faster Better.

Charles Duhigg

The Power of Habit

The book targets individuals looking to make a lot of money, but its advice is also relevant to those who define success differently.Hill believes that our thoughts, both positive and negative, shape our reality. To control our destiny, we must control our thoughts and focus on riches, which can mean wealth, happiness, success in business, or fulfilling relationships.Whether you are looking to achieve financial wealth, happiness, or success in your personal and professional life, Think and Grow Rich provides valuable insights and strategies for turning your desires into reality.

You are the master of your destiny. You can influence, direct and control your own environment. You can make your life what you want it to be.

The path to riches has an all-consuming desire to reach a specific goal or purpose. This hunger for success must be so strong that you are willing to achieve it, leaving no room for retreat.Your goal must be overriding, meaning that you are devoting your full energy to a single, specific goal at a time.If you want to turn your desire for riches into reality, you must define the exact amount of money you want, the sacrifices you are willing to make to get it, the date by which you want to have it, and your plan for acquiring it.

Unstoppable Drive Towards Accomplishing Distinctive Goal

People who are driven by a strong desire and definite purpose are often dreamers. They pursue their big ideas relentlessly, knowing that each failure is a stepping stone to success.Having an all-consuming desire and a clear, specific goal is essential for success. You must dream, desire it to the point of obsession, and plan.These steps don't require hard work, sacrifice, or education, but they do require an understanding that you can't rely on chance or good luck to reach your goal.

Individuals who attain wealth do so by fostering a success-conscious mindset, one where they concentrate their thoughts on success rather than potential failures.This focus on positivity and success helps them overcome challenges and setbacks and eventually leads them to achieve their financial goals.Thoughts are incredibly potent forces that can shape the reality of our lives. Despite this fact, many people often fail to take advantage of this power and instead let their thoughts run rampant, leading to feelings of inadequacy, defeat, or failure.

Transforming Your Mindset for Effortless Success

The key to unlocking the power of our thoughts is to become success-conscious and not failure-conscious.In order to do this, we must first focus our minds on a single, clearly defined purpose. This purpose should be our all-consuming desire, the one thing we constantly think about and devote all our time and energy to achieving.Just like Thomas Edison, who reportedly tried and failed 10,000 times before inventing the successful electric lightbulb, we too can harness the power of our thoughts and turn our desires into realities.

Success comes to those who become success conscious. Failure comes to those who allow themselves to become failure conscious.

Success is a common goal for many people, yet very few actually achieve it. One crucial step towards success is developing an unwavering desire.This isn't just a simple willingness to succeed, but an unshakable, burning desire that will keep you going no matter what obstacles come your way.Scientists are still researching the brain's capabilities, but two areas, the striatum and the orbitofrontal cortex, are thought to be associated with motivation.This means that with the right mindset and unwavering desire, you can achieve success beyond your wildest dreams.

The Power of Unwavering Desire for Achieving Success

It's essential to realize that the human brain is capable of much more than we know.To develop this type of desire, you must have a clear and specific goal in mind and create a definite plan to achieve it.Write it all down and read it aloud to yourself every day. This will help your desire to grow stronger, and you will be better equipped to overcome any obstacles that come your way.Remember, your brain is capable of more than you know, so never give up on your goals.

In order to achieve wealth and success, it's essential to have an intense amount of faith and belief in yourself and your goals.his faith acts subconsciously, guiding you towards your aspirations and helping convert thoughts into reality.If you lack faith and believe in the opposite, it can defeat your efforts and block positive thoughts.To develop faith, you can use affirmation and visualization techniques such as constantly telling yourself you can succeed, writing down your goals and repeating them frequently, and acting as if you already have what you want.

People Who Succeed  Have a Strong Belief in Their Abilities

Faith can be strengthened by the practice of autosuggestion, which involves constantly reminding yourself of your success and visualizing yourself achieving it.For autosuggestion to be effective, you must believe in what you're saying and put feeling behind your words. This technique requires practice and concentration.In short, faith and autosuggestion are crucial components of success, and through practice and concentration, anyone can develop unwavering faith in themselves and their goals.

Faith is taking the first step even when you do not see the whole staircase.

The ability to imagine is the key to turning your thoughts into tangible wealth. Your imagination has the power to create anything you can dream of, and it is a valuable resource for generating ideas and devising plans to achieve them.However, like any skill, it requires regular use to stay sharp. Keeping your mind focused on big, audacious goals will help to keep your imagination active.

Our Imagination Is Where We Can Bring Aspirations To Life

There are two types of imagination: synthetic and creative.Synthetic imagination involves taking existing ideas and concepts and reorganizing them in new and innovative ways.In the other hand, creative imagination operates in the subconscious and generates new ideas, often through sudden insights and inspiration. This type of imagination can be the driving force behind creating the plans necessary to achieve your objectives.

The fact of the matter is that imagination is a powerful tool at the forefront of some of the greatest successes in human history.From visionary entrepreneurs to creative geniuses, these individuals have used their imaginative powers to bring their ideas to life, build thriving businesses, and leave a lasting impact on the world.Whether crafting iconic products, founding world-class institutions, or pursuing their passions, these imaginative leaders have proven that anything is possible when you have the courage to dream big and bring your vision to life.

Thue world of reality has its limits; the world of imagination is boundless.

The path to professional success begins with self-awareness. Understanding your strengths and weaknesses can help you identify areas for improvement and leverage your skills to achieve your goals.It's common to experience setbacks and challenges on the road to success, but self-awareness can help you overcome them.By recognizing behaviors such as procrastination, lack of ambition, or indecisiveness, you can take corrective action or compensate for these weaknesses with your strengths.To gain a clear understanding of your strengths and weaknesses, you must conduct by honest self-analysis.

Using Self-Awareness to Maximize Your Professional Potential

After completing your self-analysis, it's helpful to seek feedback from someone who knows you well.By having an open and honest discussion with a trusted colleague, mentor, or friend, you can gain valuable insights into your blind spots and identify areas for improvement.In addition to identifying your strengths and weaknesses, self-awareness can help you develop a growth mindset.Understanding that failure is a natural part of the learning process, embrace challenges and learn from your mistakes.This can help you approach your career with a positive attitude and a willingness to take risks.

Knowledge can be divided into two categories: general knowledge and specialized knowledge. While colleges provide general knowledge, they often lack practical applications.A college degree may serve as a foundation for acquiring knowledge, but it should not be seen as a guarantee for career success.To succeed in a specific industry or pursuit, it is necessary to seek specialized knowledge tailored to that particular area. There are various ways to acquire this knowledge, such as training programs, books, research, experimentation, and personal experience.

Specializing Your Knowledge to Gain an Advantage

While specialized knowledge is critical, possessing every piece of information is not necessary to achieve your goal.Rather than that, you need a Master Mind group - a group of individuals who bring a wealth of knowledge, advice, and expertise to help you reach your goal.Not one person has the necessary experience, training, and skills to accumulate wealth single-handedly. This is where the Master Mind group comes into play, helping you develop a plan to reach your goal.

Capitalism offers basic freedoms such as freedom of thought, action, and choice in matters of religion, politics, and travel, among others.Wealth-related freedoms, such as the freedom to aspire to a higher station in life, own property, choose your profession, and provide useful service in exchange for riches, are also a part of this system.Capitalism also encompasses organized and intelligent individuals, including scientists, inventors, and educators, who work to create new products and services that benefit society and generate profits.This is the law of economics.

Take on Leadership Role and Create a Solid Plan to Make Progress

One of the primary reasons for failing to attain wealth is the incapability to make decisions and stick to them.Successful individuals are known to be quick in reaching decisions, and they make changes slowly, if at all. This helps them to stay focused and not deviate from their planned course.On the other hand, people who are unsuccessful in achieving wealth tend to be indecisive, postponing decision-making and changing their minds quickly once they have finally made a choice. This inconsistency makes it impossible for them to move towards their goals with purpose.

Successful Individuals Out for Their Persistence and Unwavering Commitment

Keep your most important ideas confidential, sharing them only with your trusted advisors so that competitors are not privy to your plans.Gather the facts and information you need discreetly. Stay silent, and keep your eyes and ears open. People who know little talk the most to impress others.By talking instead of listening, you miss out on opportunities to learn something valuable and expose your ideas to potential criticism.Demonstrate to the world what you plan to do by taking action instead of talking about it.

The whole secret of a successful life is to find out what is ones destiny to do, and then do it.

In order to turn your aspirations and desires into reality, you must have the unwavering determination to overcome any obstacle that may come your way.It is this persistence that sets apart successful individuals from those who give up at the first sign of difficulty. The pursuit of wealth requires relentless willpower, and without it, you are unlikely to achieve anything of significance.Applying the principles outlined in this book is a test of your persistence. It may take some time to develop this quality, but it is achievable.

Only Those Who Persevere Will Achieve Success

It is important to assess your level of persistence and identify any weaknesses that may be hindering your progress.Some signs of a lack of persistence include a weak motive, procrastination, indecisiveness, a tendency to quit at the first sign of defeat, and being concerned with what others think.To build persistence, you can use affirmation and visualization, renew your desire for riches, seek support from a Master Mind group, and make persistence a habit.A combination of these elements will help you write your own ticket in life and achieve your goals.

Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.

One way to achieve this is by forming a brain trust, a group of like-minded individuals who work together to define a common goal and develop competencies while maintaining checks and balances.Unlike a network, which is a more casual partnership, a brain trust emphasizes a deeper level of collaboration.The key principle of a brain trust is synergy - by combining skills, talents, knowledge, experiences, and resources of multiple people, you can achieve results that exceed what any one person could accomplish alone.This concept is crucial, especially when it comes to tackling complex goals.

Network of Intelligent Individuals Are Essential Components for Achieving Greatness

However, forming a brain trust requires careful consideration.It's essential to choose people who share the same values, are motivated, and have complementary strengths.In addition, it's crucial to establish clear communication channels, set expectations, and maintain accountability.By forming a brain trust, you'll be able to leverage the collective intelligence of the group to overcome obstacles, generate innovative ideas, and achieve greater success.Remember that even the most successful individuals have relied on the support of others to reach their goals.

It does not make sense to hire smart people and then tell them what to to , We hire smart people so they can tell us what to do.

This book aims to provide answers to several important questions that individuals might have about success and wealth creation.These include:<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">How can we set the right goals and turn them into reality?</li><li class="ql-align-justify">What motivates us to achieve our goals?</li><li class="ql-align-justify">How do planning and goal-setting contribute to success?</li><li class="ql-align-justify">What sets successful people apart?</li><li class="ql-align-justify">How can we harness the subconscious mind to shape our mindset and actions?</li><li class="ql-align-justify">What skills and knowledge are essential for success?</li><li class="ql-align-justify">How can imagination help realize our dreams?</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Why is self-awareness and knowing our strengths and weaknesses important?</li></ul>

In conclusion, the book highlights that success is not an accident and can be achieved through a combination of factors such as determination, steadfastness, self-awareness, and surrounding oneself with the right people.It is a powerful reminder that anyone can acquire the traits and skills necessary to achieve their goals and create wealth for themselves.

Think and Grow Rich, written by Napoleon Hill and published in 1937 during the end of the Great Depression, aims to provide readers with a formula and step-by-step guide to achieving wealth.

Ever wondered how life would be if we could condition our minds to Think and Grow Rich? Author Napoleon Hill claims to have based this book on twenty years of rigorous research on the lives of those who had amassed great wealth and made a fortune. Observing their habits, their ways of working and the principles they followed, Hill put together laws and philosophies that can be practiced in everyday life to achieve all-round success. The narrative is rich with stories and anecdotes, which not only inspire, but also show a way forward to take action. After all, riches are not just material, but also pertaining to the mind, body and spirit.  Having sold more than fifteen million copies across the world, this book remains the most read self-improvement book of all times!

entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship

leadershipandmanagement

Leadership & Management

Oliver Napoleon Hill was an American self-help author. He is best known for his book Think and Grow Rich, which is among the best-selling self-help books of all time. Hill's works insisted that fervid expectations are essential to improving one's life.

Napoleon Hill

Think and Grow Rich

In the ever-evolving world of technology stocks, understanding valuation metrics is crucial for investors. This summary explores the significance of the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, its implications for tech stocks, and how to effectively analyze these metrics to make informed investment decisions.

The P/E ratio is a key metric that helps investors gauge a company's value by comparing its share price to its earnings per share (EPS). Here’s a breakdown of its importance:<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Definition: The P/E ratio indicates what investors are willing to pay for $1 of earnings.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Normalization: It allows for comparisons across different companies and sectors, providing an equal playing field.</li></ul> High vs. Low P/E:<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">High P/E: Often seen in tech stocks due to their growth potential.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Low P/E: Common in more stable sectors like consumer staples.</li></ul>

The P/E Ratio Explained

Understanding the difference between trailing PE and forward P/E is essential for more accurate valuation: Trailing P/E<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Definition: Based on the last 12 months of earnings.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Use Case: Useful for historical performance analysis.</li></ul> Forward P/E<ul><li>Definition: Based on projected earnings for the next 12 months.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Use Case: Better for assessing future growth potential.</li></ul> Current Trends: The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is currently 20.3, higher than its historical averages, indicating increased expectations due to technological advancements like AI.

Trailing vs. Forward P/E Ratios

When assessing tech stocks, the P/E ratio is just the starting point. Here are additional factors to consider:<ol><li class="ql-align-justify">Earnings Growth: Look at the expected growth in earnings to determine if the stock is undervalued.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Profit Margins: Higher profit margins can indicate a company's ability to sustain earnings growth.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Macro Environment: Consider the broader economic context, including interest rates and capital expenditure (capex) trends.</li></ol>

Evaluating Tech Stocks

Different areas of technology, such as software and social media, require tailored analysis:<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Sector-Specific Metrics: Each sector may have different average P/E ratios based on growth expectations.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Earnings Expectations: Analyze whether companies are meeting or exceeding earnings expectations to gauge their true value.</li></ul>

Comparing Different Tech Sectors

It was a big week for tech stocks with four of the MAGS 7 members reporting quarterly results. These are some of the most powerful and expensive companies in the world. As part of our tech investing playbook, we want to talk about how investors can understand whether a tech stock is worth the price.

Now may be the time to revisit the tech space after recent sell-offs may have eased valuation concerns. StockBrokers.com director of investor research Jessica Inskip joins Wealth with Brad Smith to explain the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and how investors can use the technical to assess value in the tech sector.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Wealth here: https://finance.yahoo.com/videos/series/wealth/
#youtube #stocks #investing 

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